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PHILADELPHIA — The time of year has arrived when what feels inevitable starts getting solidified. View Sunday’s game between the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers purely based on the NFC standings, and it’s one in which the Eagles could clinch their third straight playoff berth or the 49ers can climb closer to overtaking them for the No. 1 seed.
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View it based on the game itself and what its result may imply, and the stakes become all the more intriguing. Two offenses, led by quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy, are operating nearly at full strength after being hit by midseason injuries, and how they perform against two of the league’s most dominant defensive fronts could project which should be the favorite to win the NFC.
Or you can view it as a rematch. The Eagles beat the 49ers 31-7 in Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game in January that unraveled after Purdy injured his throwing elbow in the first quarter while being sacked by Haason Reddick. Should we expect a closer game this time? And could this be a preview of another NFC title meeting between these teams?
As kickoff approaches (4:25 p.m. ET on Fox), The Athletic’s Eagles writer Brooks Kubena and 49ers writer David Lombardi break down the matchup.
How much of the post-NFC title trash-talking has lasted with the players heading into this game?
Lombardi: The 49ers were blunt about their feelings following the loss. Receiver Deebo Samuel called Eagles cornerback James Bradberry “trash” ahead of the Super Bowl. He doubled down on his comments after Bradberry’s critical holding call in the Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Samuel’s justification was rooted in the play on which Purdy got hurt: The 49ers were quick to point out that Brandon Aiyuk was creating big separation against Bradberry on the corner route before Purdy was sacked.
“We have a talented football team,” Aiyuk said in the aftermath of the game. “We have, hands down, the best football team in the league. Hands down. I’m not even going to argue with anyone who thinks they should argue that.”
Samuel continued talking deep into the offseason.
“We lost because we played with 10 people,” he said in May. “I ain’t going to keep going on about what could’ve happened and what would’ve happened but yeah, it would’ve definitely been a different outcome (if Purdy had been healthy).”
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The 49ers have tempered their talk in the lead-up to this rematch, although Samuel has noted he doesn’t regret anything he said over the offseason.
Said edge rusher Nick Bosa: “Last year is over with. Neither team finished the job so it’s not like they’re looking back and reminiscing on an NFC Championship win, either. I’m sure we were both sad at the end of the year. We both have aspirations to win Super Bowls so it’s a new year and this is a big step for both of us to get to that aspiration.”
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Kubena: Of course, the Eagles are less sour about how the NFC title game played out. Bradberry heard what Samuel said about him, and the one-time Pro Bowl cornerback told reporters Wednesday that he “can’t ignore it,” didn’t “necessarily like what” Samuel said but “it is what it is.”
“It’s never been part of, I would say my personality or my game, saying things in the media to get another team riled up or just express all my thoughts,” Bradberry said. “I try to keep everything generic and just go out there and handle my business when it comes down to playing the game.”
The Eagles have reason to back Bradberry’s performance in 2023. He came up with the game-changing interception that fueled their comeback against the Buffalo Bills last week. Having started in 10 games, Bradberry’s also been one of the most consistent members of a secondary that’s fielded seven different configurations of starters.
There has been no shortage of auxiliary narratives for the Eagles this season. They’re two games removed from a Super Bowl LVII rematch with the Chiefs. Some players, like left tackle Jordan Mailata, said he used the loss to the Chiefs for personal motivation. Others, like center Jason Kelce, said it wasn’t part of his thinking at all (since beating his old coach, Andy Reid, and brother, Travis Kelce, provide plenty enough motivation).
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Given the Eagles beat the 49ers, they can easily deploy the “take the high road” tactic. Coach Nick Sirianni tried to knock down another narrative of extra chippiness while speaking to reporters this week.
“This is 2023, right? It’s not 2022,” Sirianni said Wednesday. “Very similar to what we responded with the Chiefs’ stuff, like going into the Chiefs game, right? There are different players on this team. There are different players on their team. Shoot, one of our better players from last year (defensive tackle Javon Hargrave) is on their team. So, this is about the 2023 Eagles versus the 2023 Niners. Both teams are doing well. It’s going to be a heck of a battle.”
How much different is this 49ers defense under Steve Wilks? And why can it be the one to hold down Hurts and the Eagles for a full game?
Lombardi: Over the past three games, the 49ers defense has been its best self — better than the overpowering 2019 unit and the 2022 defense that finished ranked No. 1 in the NFL across most statistical categories. That’s in stark contrast to the unit that was leaking oil in the two games preceding the bye. The talk then — including that from former 49ers cornerback Richard Sherman in the media — centered on how Wilks, the team’s first-year defensive coordinator, needed to scrap his new coverage strategies and go back exclusively to the defense’s tried-and-true recipes of past seasons. During the bye, coach Kyle Shanahan decided to move Wilks from the booth to the field, where previous coordinators Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans had operated during games.
Wilks’ move coincided with the 49ers trading for edge rusher Chase Young and enjoying the fruits of rest a bye week can provide. The team also benched nickelback Isaiah Oliver, shifting cornerback Deommodore Lenoir into the spot. Wilks continues to leave his imprints on the back end — the 49ers ran a series of complex coverage disguises that froze Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to begin the turnaround — and they’ve now executed a seamless marriage between rush and coverage.
Hurts and the Eagles present a new challenge. Philadelphia fields the best offensive line the 49ers will face. Hurts’ mobility and ability to extend plays (his 3.1-second average time of snap to release is the longest in the NFL) will strain both rush and coverage for the 49ers. But they appear to be firing on all cylinders, and the fact that cornerbacks Lenoir and Charvarius Ward allowed a combined two catches for 16 yards at Philadelphia last season does inspire real confidence.
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How much worse is the Eagles defense compared to last season’s unit that fielded that game-changing pass rush?
Kubena: The most glaring issue under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai is a leaky pass defense prone to being outmatched in man-to-man coverage. They dropped from No. 3 to No. 23 in EPA per game against the pass this season, which could potentially be even lower given the Eagles have benefited from some fortuitous drops by Chiefs receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Bills running back James Cook that would’ve resulted in game-changing touchdowns.
There’s a polarity to the 2023 defense the Eagles didn’t have last season. They surrender the NFL’s third-fewest rushing yards per game (85.3) with a stout defensive front that’s still generating plenty of pressure, albeit not with the league-leading sack totals they posted a year ago. Reddick still has the ninth-most sacks among edge rushers (8 1/2), and Josh Sweat is 16th with 6 1/2. But when those disruptive plays force long third downs, the Eagles haven’t been able to get off the field. Opponents convert their third-down opportunities at the league’s third-highest rate against the Eagles (45.5 percent), up from 19th last season (38.6).
What’s with Philadelphia’s struggles to cover the middle of the field, and what’s their plan to slow Purdy and the 49ers there — especially if Zach Cunningham can’t play?
Kubena: The Eagles are vulnerable in that zone. It’s led to a trend of opponents attacking the short-middle part of the field, which is where their linebackers are often dropping in coverage. Philadelphia’s opponents have attempted 181 passes this season to targets between the numbers and within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, according to TruMedia, third most in the NFL.
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Some of that can be explained by schematics. Desai’s two-high (two deep safeties) structure encourages opponents to attack the short-middle part of the field. But opponents have also blatantly targeted and successfully exploited the Eagles’ lack of depth at linebacker and nickel safety.
Starting nickel Avonte Maddox has been on injured reserve since tearing his pectoral muscle in Week 2. Undrafted rookie Eli Ricks’ struggles to cover CeeDee Lamb against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 9 became so pronounced (Lamb finished with a career-high 191 receiving yards) that cornerback Darius Slay chose to cover Lamb man-to-man for the final two minutes of the game. Slay’s recent flexibility in his positioning in the last three games — wide left (43.95 percent of snaps), left slot (5.24), right slot (4.44), wide right (41.94) — has helped limit the frequency of explosive pass plays, but there remain questions how sustainable the solution will be against teams like the 49ers who wield a wealth of pass catchers who can create mismatches.
One of the more foreboding examples that demonstrated the Eagles’ issues at linebacker arrived against the Bills. Slay focused on Stefon Diggs in man-on-man coverage, and Cook — the Bills running back — sprinted past linebacker Nicholas Morrow on a wheel route. Had Cook not dropped the would-be touchdown, the Bills wouldn’t have eventually punted. Hard to think Christian McCaffrey drops a similar pass. But it’s also hard to believe Desai would willingly choose for such a matchup to happen.
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It may sometimes be unavoidable. Cunningham hasn’t practiced all week with the hamstring injury he sustained against the Bills, and he’s not expected to play Sunday. Beyond Morrow, Desai is positioned to start Christian Elliss, whose struggles in pass coverage in Week 1 led to his subsequent decrease in snaps. The Eagles also signed practice squad linebacker Ben VanSumeren to the active roster. There’s a reason they’re making a concerted push to sign free-agent linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who visited team facilities Wednesday.
What are the special teams strengths the Eagles can exploit against the 49ers, who have struggled in that phase?
Lombardi: The 49ers rank No. 27 DVOA in special teams and just lost George Odum — the NFL leader in special teams tackles the past two seasons — to a torn biceps muscle. That threatens to further compromise their coverage units. The team has given up a big punt return and a big kick return over its past two games. Beyond that, top 49ers return man Ray-Ray McCloud III did not practice all week because of a rib injury, so both sides of the coin may be short-handed against a Philadelphia team that’s been good on special teams this season.
The 49ers’ one special teams strength has come at punter, where Mitch Wishnowsky is delivering his best season. But they’ll need the coverage unit to effectively complement his contributions. Rookie kicker Jake Moody hasn’t missed in over a month but still needs to prove himself in an end-of-game situation. His only try so far in such conditions — in Week 6 at Cleveland — didn’t go well. Considering the 59-yard heroics of Philadelphia kicker Jake Elliott last week, the Eagles have the clear edge on paper.
(Top photos of Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts: Michael Zagaris / San Francisco 49ers / Getty Images and Andy Lewis / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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